It must be frustrating and painful to Mitt Romney to be so unloved within his own party, and for even worse news of infidelity to arrive the week of Valentine's Day, no less.
Yes, this is the same Mitt Romney who four years ago easily won the glowing endorsement of CPAC when it was John McCain being pilloried as too liberal. This year the former Massachusetts governor won only 38% of the conference vote, with Rick Santorum close on his heels.
Yes, this is the same Mitt Romney who should have won the Maine caucuses by a landslide, but instead squeaked past Ron Paul by a scant 194 votes.
Yes, this is the same Mitt Romney who four years ago was being hailed as the true conservative while McCain was suffering the ire of the GOP insurrectionists--pundits and talking heads like Glenn Beck, Michelle Malkin, Rush Limbaugh and others, who openly threatened to walk away from the Republican Party if McCain got the nomination.
Yes, this is the same Mitt Romney who in 2008 won the GOP primary in Michigan (the state of his birth) in a cakewalk, but who now faces a challenge by Santorum in the Wolverine State so serious that Romney's Super PAC has already begun deploying the negative ads.
This same Romney faces the most difficult challenge of this election cycle: how to beat back a seemingly inexplicable surge by Rick Santorum.
Riding the crest of a wave following a three-state sweep of Colorado, Minnesota and Missouri, Rick Santorum has elevated himself in several national polls, bringing his name almost even with that of Romney's among the Republicans surveyed.
A Gallup Poll released Monday shows Romney as the preference of 32% of Republicans, with Santorum pulling in 30%. Newt Gingrich sits at 16% and Ron Paul at 8%. Adjusting for the margin of error, Santorum and Romney are in a dead heat according to Gallup.
And the results of a CBS News/New York Times poll released on Tuesday show much the same result, only in this survey Santorum holds a three point lead over Romney (Santorum at 30% to Romney's 27%). Paul and Gingrich trail at third and fourth respectively.
In addition, a poll by Pew Research indicates that among independent voters, undecided voters and those Republicans uncertain of their choice in future primaries or caucuses, it is Rick Santorum who benefits from the unease among GOP voters. And even more dangerous for Romney, the Pew data shows Romney slipping decidedly among those same independent and non-aligned voters.
To add to the insult to Romney, polling within the state of Michigan now shows Santorum leading Romney statewide, and many among Santorum's own strategy team now say that they have a better-than-average chance of winning an upset victory in the very state where Mitt Romney's father, George Romney, served as governor in the 1960s. Michigan's primary is on February 28. Clearly, the Santorum team sees a win in Michigan as another opportunity to undercut the notion of Romney as inevitable, and a chance at a media and political coup larger than last Tuesday's trifecta in Missouri, Minnesota and Colorado.
With Super Tuesday and the other March voting days closing in fast, Romney has precious little time to close the deal with the skeptics among his fellow Republicans. (See my article from February 12). Though Romney can expect to do quite well in some of the March battleground states, much of the geography favors Santorum, including vast tracts of the south and Midwest and middle-Atlantic, counties which had been fertile ground for Mike Huckabee in 2008. Santorum has the allegiance of these voters. Even Newt Gingrich has lost ground as the bond strengthens between Christian conservatives/social conservatives/Tea Partiers and the former senator from Pennsylvania.
Now, with even Michigan beginning to tilt toward Santorum, Romney faces as serious a challenge as any he has battled so far. Where Romney, as the established front-runner, once clearly benefited from the last fall's crowded field, he now faces a new reality: conservatives are migrating into Santorum's camp in potentially decisive numbers.
Romney has survived these setbacks before: a razor thin loss in Iowa, then a comfortable win in New Hampshire; a major loss in South Carolina, then, a solid comeback in Florida. His more recent win in Nevada seemed to confirm his status as the Man to Beat. But now--despite his formidable resources and organization--Romney faces a serious de-escalation of political capital, a chain of misfortunes of the sort which can trigger tectonic shifts on the landscape.
The psychology of momentum comes into play: Santorum wins a string of primaries and caucuses, and Romney suddenly seems less-than-towering, not inevitable; in the fluid environment, more undecided voters give Santorum a closer look, causing polling data to reflect a shift; an uptick in poll numbers spurs heightened media discussion and an increase in Santorum's fundraising success; the resulting injection of cash and volunteers and resources allow the fledging candidacy to raise the caliber of ground combat, hitting more cities and states, buying more television airtime in key markets. Santorum's poll numbers move up still further, and the surge can be also measured in additional states, generating more conversation and spiking more cash. Perception becomes reality.
Sometimes this can be part of candidate's strategic plan, but this year, it is clearly not. Gingrich, for example, had little, if any, real plan for what to do with his sudden success in the hours and days after South Carolina. Santorum, it seems, has been stalking this potential development for many weeks, largely bypassing Florida and its complex, expensive TV markets and relying only on two stand-up debate performances. After the debates, Santorum grabbed his bags and quickly moved west, to Missouri, Minnesota and Colorado. The gambit seems to have paid off. He is now seen as the chief rival to Romney within the core of the GOP--traditionalists versus insurrectionists--isolating even Gingrich as perhaps irrelevant to the narrative and leaving only Ron Paul as the non-traditional candidate.
Romney, of course, has a substantial organization, the backing of heavy hitters and big name Republicans, a powerful and well-funded Super PAC, as well as plenty of his own cash. His formidable resources may be second only to Barack Obama. Despite the recent setbacks Romney may yet prove more capable of surviving the long distance marathon to first-timer Santorum. But the fact that Romney is no longer seen as the anointed one by so many Republicans, and the fact that he is losing strength among non-aligned and independent voters, places him in jeopardy.
To further complicate things for Romney, his own negatives ads attacking Santorum as being a typical tax-and-spend Washington insider have been met with return fire from Santorum's campaign. The pro-Santorum ads, which are being run heavily in Michigan, show a Romney-look-alike actor portrayed as a machine gun toting thug firing manic bursts of mud at cardboard images of Santorum.
Romney is also facing a complicated and thorny issue in Michigan. Some journalists have rolled out Romney's now infamous quotes regarding the U.S automotive industry's bailouts, the huge injections of Federal cash which went into teetering auto giants GM and Chrysler during 2009's dark days of recession. In the past, Romney had suggested that the car manufacturers should have faced the traditional bankruptcy process, even if that meant the potential for even more layoffs and plant closings. Many voters in Michigan favored the massive loans, and saw the cash infusions as the only way to stave off the total collapse of the American car industry. Though Romney has backed away from his tougher statements from 2009 and 2010, his past language is hurting him with blue collar voters in the state of his birth. Romney's father, George Romney, was once a top auto executive and who became governor of Michigan.
So between the Mitt Romney versus Rick Santorum campaign narrative, and the fracas over the two-minute Chrysler ad which featured Hollywood icon Clint Eastwood, Detroit finds itself at the center of the political universe this week.
The Romney campaign is quickly trying to lower expectations; they say they never regarded the Wolverine State as home turf, nor did they see it as a cozy place of voter fidelity. With Santorum leading in some Michigan polls, this is a prudent tactical retreat for Valentine's week.
Copyright 2012, Thursday Review
