Two weeks ago during the CNN Debate in Mesa, Arizona, moderator John King had asked the candidates to use one word--and only one word--to describe themselves to the American people. Ron Paul had said consistent, Rick Santorum had described himself as courageous, Mitt Romney as resolute, and Newt Gingrich, having the fortune of being the last to answer, offered up cheerful. Everyone in the Mesa Arts Center had laughed, and King deftly ended the exchange by calling it "a useful exercise."
But if those same four candidates had been asked last night to provide a single word, that adjective might have been "relieved."
The short version of Super Tuesday: everyone survives to fight another day.
Romney walks away with five wins, Santorum claims three, and even Gingrich, thanks to his successful defense along the ramparts of his home state of Georgia, claimed a Peach State victory and declared it reason enough to continue his quest. Ron Paul, the notable exception to this dynamic, remains predictably undaunted, for he considers the moral and philosophical strengths of his constitutional message--and the enthusiastic swells of supporters he draws to any event--justification enough to sustain the cause.
The look of relief on Romney's face as he spoke to his supporters in Boston at 9:45 p.m. was unmistakable. He had easily won in his home state of Massachusetts, in neighboring Vermont, and in Virginia--where Santorum had not been able to muster enough signatures before the registration deadline to get on the ballot. As Romney spoke, his paper thin lead over Rick Santorum in Ohio was beginning to open up, even as only a few hundred votes separated the two candidates in the much-watched Buckeye State contest. Earlier in the evening Santorum had taken the lead and kept it--at some times narrowly--for hours as the votes trickled in.
But, as had been expected, the slow-reporting urban counties of Hamilton (Cincinnati) and Cuyahoga (Cleveland) ultimately tipped the balance in Romney's favor, and though it ended as squeaker similar to his close wins in the Michigan primary and the Maine caucuses, he was able by 11:00 p.m. to feel comfortable of having won the biggest prize of the night.
In his speech to supporters, Romney acknowledged Santorum, Gingrich and Paul and their tireless campaigning in the various Super Tuesday states. But Romney quickly focused his attention on President Obama, seeking, as he often does, to draw the argument away from the intra-party squabbles and back to the general election. Romney shuttled forcefully though his usual top tier themes: controlling government spending, cutting taxes, creating an environment that is pro-business growth and pro-jobs growth--all while portraying himself as the logical foil and chief antagonist to Barack Obama.
Santorum, speaking to a standing-room only crowd at the high school gymnasium in Steubenville, Ohio, used the small town school and local student sports venue as an allegory for his life and his campaign, referencing the rural and small town values and sense of community he associates with the grassroots themes of his campaign.
Santorum pitted himself against "the elites in Washington," and against the forces of taxation and runaway spending which "will cripple future generations." The Obama Administration, Santorum said, represents a force of political thought which will bring about "the beginning of the end of freedom in this country."
"Big things have to happen in this country," Santorum said "to bring us back from the brink of insolvency. Big things have to happen in this country for us to regain our freedoms." Perhaps as a way to help redirect the narrative away from the recent battle of words over social issues and contraception, Santorum reminded his supporters that his "centerpiece issue is Obama Care."
Speaking in Atlanta at 8:40 p.m., Newt Gingrich was defiant. Gingrich turned his address into a referendum on Wall Street versus Main Street, clearly seeking to portray himself as the one true alternative to Mitt Romney and his well-funded campaign. Like Santorum, Gingrich made many references to "elites," both in the political establishment and in the media. As he often does, Gingrich stressed that he is the only candidate among the GOP contenders who can go the distance in any series of debates with Barack Obama. Gingrich also repeated his call for a vigorous program to bring about energy-independence, mocking what he sees as ineffectiveness and failure by President Obama on the issue of energy.
Gingrich had easily won in Georgia, sweeping his home state and awarding him his first trophy since he won South Carolina in January. Gingrich's victory in Georgia had been expected; it was simply a matter of how big, and with nearly 100% of the votes totaled his 47% share was one of the most impressive of the night.
Gingrich swept virtually the entire state, leaving Romney with only Chatham County (Savannah) which Romney won by 39%, and two Atlanta Counties, Fulton and DeKalb. Only in Fulton County did Romney win by a wide margin. Some counties in the wider Atlanta exurb and suburb areas were blowouts. Gingrich win in Gwinnett by 47%, in Forsyth by 48%, in Douglas by 55%, in Henry by 57%, and in Cherokee by 50%. In many of the most conservative counties, Santorum place a solid second, leaving Romney buried at a distant third.
Romney's victories in Massachusetts, Vermont and Virginia had been widely predicted, and the former governor's lopsided in the Bay State took on epic percentages: he won Middlesex County by 75% (to Santorum's 10%, Paul's 10%, and Gingrich's 4%), Plymouth County by 75%, Barnstable by 76%, and Norfolk by 77%. Only in the western part of the state di Romney's competitors even have a fighting chance. Santorum's high water mark was in rural Berkshire County where he scored 23%. Gingrich landed in fourth place in most of Massachusetts. In Essex and Suffolk Counties Gingrich pulled in less than 4%.
The Massachusetts GOP has a winner-take-all system, so Romney gets to keep all his winnings there--38 delegates.
So Gingrich and Romney each had one state with home field advantage, and a chance to run up the score.
Virginia was problematic since neither Santorum nor Gingrich had obtained the requisite number of signatures to be on the ballot, an organizational failure that no doubt cost both of the insurgents dearly. Romney was able to treat Virginia as his own stomping ground, racking up a lopsided win and walking away with 43 of the state's 46 delegates. Ron Paul got to keep the remaining three delegates. Perhaps as a result of the absence of the names of Santorum and Gingrich on the ballot, Republican voter turnout in Virginia was low; only about 266,000 votes were cast statewide.
Fully expected were Santorum's wins in Tennessee and Oklahoma. Exit polls conducted showed the decidedly more socially conservative and evangelical voters of these states found greater appreciation of Santorum's message, even as these same voters expressed a general distrust of Mitt Romney. Santorum's victories in Tennessee and Oklahoma were substantial: he won in Tennessee by 37% to Romney's 28%, taking roughly 205,000 votes out of 541,800 votes cast (this was with about 97% of the votes counted) and leaving Gingrich and Paul in third and fourth place.
In Oklahoma, Santorum swept much of the state, pulling in 34% statewide to Romney's 28% and Gingrich's 27%. Paul came in a distant fourth with only 10%. In a familiar pattern, Romney's only big wins in the Sooner State came in the population centers of Oklahoma City, and the Oklahoma County suburbs of Bethany, Midwest City, Edmond and The Village. Romney also won in Payne County and the city of Stillwater. But Santorum also had to share a few counties with Gingrich, as the former Speaker won in ten counties, including a cluster of counties just east of the panhandle and several in the northern part of the state. Santorum will likely walk away with 14 delegates from Oklahoma, which is only slightly more than the take for Romney and Gingrich, who will each get 13 delegates.
In Tennessee, Santorum swept nearly every county, dropping only three to Romney and one to Gingrich. The lone Gingrich win came in Marion County, west of Chattanooga and a border county with neighbors in both Alabama and Georgia. Romney won only in the greater Nashville area (Davidson County, Williamson County) and in Loudon County southwest of Knoxville.
Otherwise, the Volunteer State belonged to Santorum from the Mississippi River in the west to the Great Smoky Mountain National Park in the east. And like Georgia, Romney sometimes finished in third place, behind Santorum and Gingrich. The farther west one looks at the map of Tennessee, the more lopsided the winning result for Rick Santorum. In some counties closest to the Mississippi River, the former Senator pulled in more votes than all other candidates combined. Only in Memphis (Shelby County) was Santorum's win a close call.
Vermont, which had also been regarded safe turf for Romney, added another nine delegates to the former Massachusetts governor's head count. Romney won in the Green Mountain State by a solid 40%, leaving Ron Paul and Rick Santorum with 25% and 24% respectively.
Santorum won in the North Dakota caucuses, where, once the votes are counted and the math sorted out, he'll likely finish with about forty percent of the votes and the larger share of the delegates.
By the time the night was finally over, most analysts and experts agreed it had been a split decision. Only Ron Paul walked away empty handed in terms of a bona fide "win," but Paul still collected what he considered a respectable catch of delegates.
Ohio had been the Big Kahuna, and the state most closely watched for all the oft-repeated attributes: Ohio is diverse--truly diverse like Florida or California--which is to say a state that is neither all white nor all protestant nor all poor nor all rich. Indeed Ohio's ethnic and religious mix is approximate to that of the rest of the country. Ohio has a nicely proportioned mix of urban, mid-sized town and small town; Ohio is both rural and urban. Ohio has manufacturing--real factories producing real things--not just call centers and distribution hubs, as well as agricultural and dairy production.
And, most importantly to anyone running for president, Ohio has electoral votes. For Republicans it is a key state, essential, some historians say, for winning the presidency. That means a big score on primary night in the Buckeye State can be translated quickly and effectively into media and political capital the next day. For both Santorum and Romney the state of Ohio had become must-win. Which is why, in the wee hours of Wednesday morning and the dust had settled, Romney could take the greater comfort. But it had been close.
Still, Romney's strategists and spokespersons wasted little time. Team Romney began circulating press material suggesting that the arithmetic no longer supported the Santorum insurrection: Romney would become the Republican nominee, and it was simply a matter of time. For Santorum to prevail now would require nothing less, to quote the Romney spinmeisters, than an "act of God."
So now the battle moves south, to Alabama and Mississippi, and to the Great Plains, to Kansas. These areas are not Romney Country. What word will the ex-governor use to describe himself at the end of that day?
Copyright 2012, Thursday Review
Road Show is published each week by Thursday Review publications, copyright 2008, 2012
