While John McCain travels around the country attempting to solidify his image with Americans, another day ticks past in the ugly fight between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. There are only two ways this thing will end: someone withdraws for the good of the party (presumably Hillary Clinton), or the two titans must engage in hand-to-hand combat at the convention in Denver while millions watch it on TV. And that assumes that those millions of TV viewers don't yawn instead and change the channel. After all, the unfounded rumors are already circulating about another few episodes of The Sopranos.

Meanwhile, another handful of super delegates have tilted uneasily into the Obama column, making the math for Hillary Clinton even more difficult. Former President Jimmy Carter has already told reporters that he will likely come out in support of Obama, and you can expect another made-for-TV event like the one that featured Bill Richardson's endorsement. Still, the Clinton team has made it very clear they intend to fight on until the last combatant is standing. John Edwards has not weighed in, and his endorsement would likely be coupled to a release of his pledged delegates. The smart money says he is more inclined toward Clinton, but in this year of surprises and odd turnarounds, anything is possible.

Joe Klein, in his Time magazine column, has suggested that one solution to avoid self-destruction in Denver would be Al Gore, the party's elder statesman and perhaps the only mega politician able to straddle both sides of the New Party versus Old Party divide. If a deadlock emerges after the first round of voting at the convention, why not turn to Gore, with the caveat that he tap into both Obama and Clinton for major posts in his administration? A truly unlikely long shot, to be sure, but a possible solution to the increasingly knotty problem Democrats face.

Gore, however, has been consistent in his statements: he is not a candidate; he has no interest in running.

But the fact that Klein and others have mentioned Gore as a possible savior for a party divided demonstrates how precarious the situation is for Democrats. With a measurable number of Obama supporters now saying they will not back Clinton if she is the eventual nominee, and with nearly the same percentage of Hillary backers saying the same about Obama, the race is clearly becoming polarized to the point of no return. Even after one peels away the obvious bravado and press-handler-hype, there is a threshold in intra-party battles that, once crossed, cannot be retraced. In 1964 the fight between the agents of Barry Goldwater and the forces of Nelson Rockefeller was so bitter that many GOP moderates and centrists voted for Lyndon Johnson or stayed home on Election Day rather than give Goldwater satisfaction. And in 1976 the fierce pre-convention fight waged between President Gerald Ford and Ronald Reagan was costly enough by some accounts to have opened the door for Jimmy Carter's victory in November that year.

Still, there are those (myself included) who feel that the Obama versus Clinton battle might still end on a happy note, though the options for that rosy scenario are growing short. For Obama and the party, one of the solutions would be for Clinton to withdraw, but based on the long history of the Clinton's relationship with power and their tenacious grit, Hillary Clinton is unlikely to demure. There are no examples of either Clinton ever throwing in the towel before the scheduled end of a boxing match. After investing so much money and time over the course of nearly two years, she feels she has little reason to give up now. And she still regards upcoming contests in Pennsylvania and Indiana as indicative of her ability to win where it counts most--in the heavily populated, big-ticket prizes that make the most difference in the Electoral College math. If she wins in these two states, she will no doubt use those trophies to continue to make her case.

By the same token, Obama has little reason to withdraw. He is the delegate leader and the total popular vote leader through this long series of primaries and caucuses. In the nip-and-tuck struggle over super delegates, he is prevailing slowly but surely. However close the numbers, he still holds the high ground. And in order for him to fall behind in the pledged delegate count, he would have to take a spectacular nosedive in all the remaining contests--a seriously unlikely scenario. Even then, Clinton would not have enough delegates to win of her own accord, and she would have to engage in a furious fight for the hearts and minds of enough super delegates to put her over the top.

Could one or the other candidate prevail via a tactical coup at the convention? Absolutely. Based on party rules and guidelines, all bets are off after the first round of balloting.

Besides the Gore scenario, there is the option--once often discussed--of the so-called Dream Ticket, but not many people are talking about that possibility these days. This season's brutality may have already destroyed any hope of partnership. The Obama-Clinton/Clinton-Obama combination was all the rage a few months ago, but when the Clinton team cynically overplayed the idea during the run-up to Texas and Ohio, the Obama people pretty much put the kibosh on any more talk of marriage. Family fights often carry the most devastating wounds, and there is little chance now of the Dream Ticket emerging out of Denver.

Are there other Third Way options? Possibly, but they would be academic and highly abstract. Is it possible that John Edwards could tip the balance? Not likely, since his committed delegate count is not that large. Still, in a virtual deadlock in the balloting, Edwards could toss his delegation into the Clinton column to put her over the top. Would Edwards himself make a bid to be the Middle Path savior? If his candidacy did not generate genuine altitude early in the campaign, he is not likely to emerge as much of a solution for Democrats now. Edwards' shining moment was his narrow second place finish in Iowa. After early January his viability sank as the race quickly evolved into a battle between Obama and Clinton.

So, who else is out there? John Kerry? This is unlikely, to say the least, and to be polite. Joe Lieberman? Once widely respected within the party, he was literally forced out after his early support for the Iraq War. He is now an independent. Howard Dean? His current role as party chairman seems to suit him far better than his days on the campaign trail. He can--and should--sit this one out. And the widely admired and affable Bill Richardson would now only serve to throw salt in the grisly wounds were his name to enter into any discussion as a compromise candidate.

A few months ago, when he was sometimes asked in debates about Clinton as his running mate, Obama was fond of intimating that there could be a place for Hillary in his administration. This was his tactful way of saying No Thanks to the idea of Hillary as Veep, while still holding out the laudable goal of including her in a prominent role...Secretary of Health & Human Services say, or maybe U.N. Ambassador. On a few occasions the remarks backfired, but more importantly he realized the question was little more than a finger trap. He clearly wanted no part of a deal if those roles were reversed. Still, this may be the only realistic solution for Obama. By offering such a package deal at the convention--i.e., "I don't think it appropriate that Hillary serve as vice-president, but I think she is generously qualified to be a part of my cabinet"--he could easily include her larger agendas on health care and education reform into his administration, especially since the two candidates are in general agreement on the larger liberal issues.

But at this point, especially in the wake of the cynical and patently self-serving Clinton chat last month about Obama making a great vice-president, it seems unlikely that these two titans will be able to campaign side-by-side, or, for that matter, work in peace within the same White House.

In the meantime, the John McCain campaign jogs along at a generally comfy pace. After widespread talk about how little money McCain has raised so far in this campaign, the Arizona senator now seems to be in an almost morally advantageous position because of his Low Cash Express. Bigger contributions will surely flow his way when he needs it most--after the convention. But for now he can make the reasonable argument that it is Clinton and Obama who are the big money, fat-bank-account candidates, wasting millions of dollars each day (literally) on a divisive, ugly campaign, while he goes directly to the people in a low key, straight spoken conversation that is netting positive and tangible results.

 

Road Show is published each week by Thursday Review publications, copyright 2008

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