John McCain must now move mountains. With a scant 18 days left before the general election, McCain is watching his political fortunes fall in close tandem with the shrinking stock market and collapsing economy. Barack Obama, on the other hand, has watched his share of the poll numbers continue rise steadily--not dramatically--but with enough certainty to indicate that momentum is moving in his direction.

For the McCain campaign, even some few of the Red States have now become uncertain territory. Florida and North Carolina, which were leaning into McCain's column as recently as a month ago, are now slipping within reach of Obama's grasp. These were must-win states for the GOP strategy, and no amount of creative math can make up the difference if McCain loses both the Sunshine State and Tar Heel country.

Polls conducted by the major news organizations as recently as Thursday and Friday now show Obama with a solid electoral vote lead, with the possibility of that lead growing larger within the next week. For those backing Obama, victory seems within grasp.

But the Obama campaign is warning supporters and staff against complacency and early celebration. Much can happen in 18 days and many independent voters remain stubbornly undecided. Numerical hubris has taken its toll on more than a few presidential aspirants in the recent years. In 2000 Al Gore was still ahead in every major poll only weeks before the general election. And in the last days and hours before the election of 1980, millions of undecided voters famously broke decidedly for Ronald Reagan, handing Jimmy Carter a stinging defeat.

Further, many analysts talk openly of a hidden race factor-as yet unproved in this election cycle, but based largely on the "Bradley Effect" seen in some past elections. According to some, this effect could inject an error of as much as seven percent into the current numbers-a margin large enough to be a decisive factor in the swing states. The Obama team worries that any potential for hidden errors and misleading data offers reason enough to stay the course and assume nothing-every state is important and every vote crucial.

Even more troubling for both sides may be the outcome of the increasingly nasty dispute in Ohio over voter registration, allegations of fraud in early voting, and the simmering ACORN issue. The Obama people see it this way: suppose the hidden Bradley Effect turns out to be real on Election Day. An error of five to seven percent could swing some states solidly back toward McCain, creating a potential Electoral College deadlock similar to 2000. Ohio might become the pivotal state (remember Florida in 2000) as armies of lawyers and political handlers converge to examine voter registration forms and pore over signatures and handwriting. The Obama camp wants to leave nothing to chance, and their goal is to continue to move the overall numbers in Obama's favor--not just in the swing states but nationally--thus depriving McCain of the opportunity for a come-from-behind fourth quarter. Obama's fundraiser teams continue to work literally around the clock online and on the phones seeking contributions for one purpose--sustaining an effective advertising blitz right through Election Day to counter McCain's advertising.


Last week's debate between Obama and McCain changed little in the immediate narrative, and may have in fact pushed a few independent voters into Obama's column. The debate was meant to be the game-changer for the Senator from Arizona, and despite McCain's more aggressive tact and Obama's weak first half, most analysts viewed the debate as another small but important net gain for Obama. Each candidate saw his base harden: Obama talked of what the government needs to do to intervene in a wobbly, uncertain economy and a world of shrinking fossil fuel sources; McCain talked old school supply side economics and tax cuts, and accused Obama of being a big-spender. Both men were right and both were wrong. And each dodged the hardest questions from moderator Bob Sheiffer of CBS News.


Still, Obama walked away less bruised than McCain and a little taller in the polls, particularly in those states constantly under the microscope by the major networks and news agencies--the "battleground" states and the hometowns of people like Joe the Plumber. (Between the two candidates, Joe the Plumber received at least 26 direct references--twice more than the mentions of Ronald Reagan, John F. Kennedy, Bill Clinton, George H.W. Bush and FDR combined.)


Thursday night produced a brief cease-fire in the negative ads and the shrillest of the stump speeches: McCain and Obama were guests of honor at the annual Al Smith dinner in New York City. Sharing the stage with other political luminaries, Obama and McCain were friendly and cordial, even self-effacing--a tradition at the Al Smith affairs--and their respective humor was a welcome respite from the ugly sludge of recent weeks. But by the next morning the heavy artillery and sniper fire was wide open again.

McCain, cruelly linked to the collapsing economy and the pain felt by Americans of every stripe, seems helpless to change the tone or the narrative. This raises the question: is there anything he can do to stem the flow of disgruntled voters into the Obama column?

A few GOP strategists and some independent analysts suggest that McCain must move back to the fundamentals. This may include dumping the current tactical plan based on negative advertising. Some of the most recent polling indicates that many respondents blame McCain more than Obama for the low road tone of the campaign. Other voters are simply tired of the harshness and the tit-for-tat, and yearn instead for a candidate--any candidate--who can give them straight answers, especially when voters are watching their retirement savings evaporate and the value of their home spiral downward. And again, last week's debate settled nothing.

Although there is nothing scientific in my casual numbers, nearly every person I personally spoke to the next day said they began watching the debate but became disgusted after only 20 to 30 minutes and changed the channel. The most common complaint: the candidates weren't saying anything new, nor were they responding honestly or competently to questions about the economy.

McCain continues to make a valiant attempt to unlink himself from the current administration of George W. Bush, (quote McCain: if Obama wanted to run against George W. Bush he should have run four years ago!) but Obama's stump speeches and advertising barrages do not let McCain off the hook: a vote for John McCain is a vote for four more years of the same bad fiscal and economic policy. At a time when the vast majority of voters are feeling about as much invasive financial pain as at any time since the early 1970s, the message--fairly or unfairly--is having the desired effect.

For McCain, the tactical success of Sarah Palin proved short-lived and may yet prove to be a costly strategic mistake. Many Republicans complain openly that the same unification of the base could have been accomplished with a fiscal conservative like Mitt Romney, creating a GOP ticket more prepared for a race in which the economy is the forefront issue.

Indeed, what benefited McCain so mightily six and nine months ago--measurable success in the Iraq War--now seems a non-issue for most Americans. Romney would have brought economic meat-and-potatoes to the ticket, which would have been an effective counter-balance to the Obama-Biden claim that McCain is out of touch when it comes to Main Street's money worries. Palin continues to energize the GOP right-of-center base and continues to draw large crowds, but her inconsistent and shaky handling of hard issues during interviews has forced her into a more-or-less permanent quarantine from reporters. Still, dumping a vice-presidential candidate is a last-ditch, nuclear option--a move not to be taken lightly. McCain is married to Palin for better or worse, and it is too late to introduce a vice presidential game changer now.

But even some Obama supporters, handlers and spin-doctors question why McCain does not change direction sharply. Democratic strategist Paul Begala wondered aloud on CNN a few nights ago why the McCain campaign does not more openly and bravely tell the compelling story of the heroic, maverick John McCain in their advertising, instead of allowing the marketing team to plod so ineffectively along the low road. Some Democrats feared most the independent-thinking, war veteran McCain, and they were convinced by the end of the Republican convention that McCain would opt for the Fred Thompson-style narrative to propel the Senator through the final weeks of the campaign. But when word leaked out that McCain's own advisers were seeking ways to mute economic discussion and keep the chatter focused on terror and foreign policy, the Obama team seized this as more evidence of a McCain out of touch with the plight of average Americans.

So the Obama campaign will stick to their refrain--it's the economy stupid. Most Americans agree with that assessment, especially after five weeks of horrifying shocks to the stock market, to financial institutions and to retirement nest eggs.

Overall, stocks have lost some 40% of their value since January. Even Americans with mostly conservative 401k investments have seen a net loss of 25% or greater. Housing markets continue to remain frozen as banks recoil from lending. Cities and counties have begun taking the unusual step of prohibiting evictions and foreclosures, fearing what will happen to struggling neighborhoods when every third or fourth house is empty. Venerable, iconic companies such as General Motors find their stock depressed to what it was worth in 1956. Financial institutions that survived two world wars and the Great Depression find themselves teetering at the edge of bankruptcy. The government assumes control of some, but allows others to fall aside. Commercial shipping, receiving and transport drops so low that gas prices--only a few months ago predicted to skyrocket past $5 by January 2009--actually fell to under $3 per gallon. Prices may fall further as companies like Chevron and BP struggle with an unprecedented drop in demand.

Are these things John McCain's fault? Surely not, but because of his close party and ideological linkage to the current president George W. Bush, McCain has little wiggle room to declare independence. In truth, neither McCain nor Obama are to blame--nor are they blameless. Americans on the whole hold an even dimmer view of Congress than they do of their unpopular president, and McCain and Obama are, after all, members of the U.S. Senate.

Still, the burden is on McCain to break out of the current doldrums facing his candidacy. Obama--while not getting too celebratory--has reason to be optimistic.

 

Road Show is published each week by Thursday Review publications, copyright 2008

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