image courtesy of AP

No Conflict is Local, No War is Regional
| published July 19, 2014 |

By R. Alan Clanton
Thursday Review editor

The apparent deliberate shooting-down of a Malaysian airliner over the skies of eastern Ukraine demonstrates the truth of the maxim that no conflict is truly local, nor even regional.

The impact of the civil war in the Ukraine could be felt even at the start of the conflict in those surreal split-screen images showing the idyllic colors and beauty of the Olympic Games in Sochi, Russia juxtaposed with images of intense street fighting in the center of Kiev. The violence in the capital and the sudden ousting of Viktor Yanukovych, overshadowed what had been the previous worst-case scenario: potential violence by terror groups aligned with Chechnya’s pro-independence militants. After Yanukovich fled the country with his bags of cash and his crates of gold, there was a brief moment of fresh air and optimism.

Then, in a chilling replay of the Cold War era, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered troops and tanks to the ready, and declared the Ukraine’s sudden outburst of self-determination to be illegal and an affront to his political sensibilities and his desire for regional hegemony. Within weeks Russian troops moved on the Crimea, a semi-autonomous region in the south of the Ukraine, and a vitally important strategic base for Russian military and commercial shipping through the Black Sea. It only took a few days before Moscow annexed the Crimea, folding it back under Russian authority.

By the time pro-Russian militants and “militias” began taking over cities and towns east of the Dnieper River, what was happening in the Ukraine was just short of being total civil war. Putin claimed—even as he claims now—that Russia is not involved with the heavily armed and well-trained militants. This claim seems spurious at best, considering photographic evidence and video evidence which seems to show Russian soldiers merely slightly disguised as militants or mercenaries, and considering the extent to which these same fighters were armed with the latest Russian-made weapons.

Simultaneous to the militant takeovers of scores of cities and towns in eastern Ukraine, Moscow engaged in a massive military build-up along the border between Russia and Ukraine. Despite Moscow’s claim that it was all routine exercises, satellite imagery showed so much heavy Russian firepower concentrated along that narrow frontier that an all-out invasion seemed certain. High-altitude photos showed hundreds of tanks, hundreds of personnel carriers, thousands of troops, support personnel, rocket-launchers, and even road equipment—staged in various areas within minutes of the border. Even more chilling were the images of helicopter gunships and Russian MiGs, scores of them, parked on runways and airstrips with fueling trucks at the ready.

For the administration of U.S. President Barack Obama, the challenge was to encourage a de-escalation of a very dangerous international crisis—one that could ultimately pit the Russian military against the armies of the Ukraine and neighboring nations, and a local war that could easily drag other major powers into the fray. The U.S. and some allies imposed sanctions meant to put the squeeze on Putin and his political cronies among the bankers and oil chieftains. Russia responded with sanctions of its own, including restrictions of travel and moves against U.S. companies doing business in Russia and eastern Ukraine. The sanctions and counter sanctions continued, with the U.S. freezing assets of some of Russia’s most powerful oligarchs, and with Russia cutting the U.S. out of its rocket engine and heavy lifting projects in space.

It was not the crisis the Obama administration was expecting, nor was it particularly welcome as the U.S. prepares for its last months in Afghanistan, the bloody civil war in Syria entered yet another year, and Islamic militants began consolidating their efforts in the Levant, seizing opportunities in northern Syria and northwest Iraq. ISIS soon swept across Iraq, moving at astonishing speed as the Iraqi army and security forces collapsed. Iraq’s sudden and breathtaking fragmentation—triggered by a combination of lawlessness in Syria and thick-headedness by Iraq’s Maliki—raised the specter of a new civil war and the complete loss of any semblance of democracy in a country where thousands of Americans died.

But it was in this moment when Putin was exerting his most intense efforts to meddle in the Ukraine. Even as the talk of sanctions intensified over the last weeks and days, pro-Russian separatists were burnishing their military record in the field—shooting down Ukrainian helicopters and Ukrainian military transports. Their weapon of choice? Radar-guided missiles, or BuK-M systems, specifically designed to bring down aircraft with a single properly targeted shot. The NATO designation for the BuK-M is Gadfly. According to military websites it has a range of about 130 miles and it can reach aircraft or missiles at altitudes of 72,000 feet. The Malaysian jetliner was flying at roughly 32,000 feet when it was struck by the radar-guided rocket.

The pro-Russian militants and Putin have repeatedly said that the downing of the commercial airliner was not their fault, and have instead blamed the Ukrainian government. Some militant spokesman have gone as far as to suggest that the Ukrainian army shot down the civilian plane in order to whip up sympathy against the militant forces. But Ukrainian authorities say their have digital evidence—radio and cell phone conversations—to show that militant commanders in the field were already reporting having shot down a plane in the minutes after the airliner disappeared from radar. And U.S. intelligence agencies confirmed that American high tech tracking systems—some of which have been routinely monitoring the fighting in the Ukraine—detected the launch of a ground-to-air missile matching the exact heat signature of a BuK-M. Seconds later, the explosion was easily detected by satellite tracking systems. The plane went down about 18 miles from the Russian border, and its resulting debris field is consistent with intelligence data showing where the plane was hit by the missile.

The Malaysian jet exploded in midair, broke apart, and its pieces fell across of five-mile stretch of Ukrainian countryside near the small farming small town of Hrabove. All 295 passengers died.

A week ago the biggest fears for many living in the European Union was the threat of an even harsher war of sanctions, one which might trigger an all-out moratorium of gas and oil shipments from Russia or eastern Ukraine, and one which might destabilize an economy still struggling to recover from a long recession.

Now, the Ukraine’s troubles threaten to spill over into the affairs of scores of countries as the crash site becomes of paramount importance. Several times in the last 48 hours international crash investigators and observers have been turned away from the location of the debris by militants. In one case, investigators were allowed to examine the crash site for about one hour before being told to leave or face being detained.

In Kiev, the Ukrainian authorities say that the pro-Russian militants are tampering with evidence and altering the crash site. Militants have been reluctant to let any outside authorities into the area, even as scores of reporters have been granted limited access to the crash site. Bodies and body parts which were allowed to remain on the ground for days are now being collected by a ragtag of Ukrainian mine workers—presumably trained for disasters—and some militants. Malaysian officials released a statement saying that it “is inhumane” for the pro-Russian militants to refuse access to crash investigators and forensic specialists. Other international and European observers have been barred from entering the area by heavily armed militants.

Most troubling has been the apparent disappearance of the airplane’s “black box,” which some Ukrainian officials now fear has been deliberately removed from the scene by militants. One spokesman for the militants says that the box has been recovered, while others claim it has not been found. Also critical to any investigation would be the voice recorder, a device which might indicate what was happening in the moments before the plane was struck by the rocket. It too has not been found, and the governments of the Ukraine, the Netherlands and Malaysia fear that it has been taken by the militants who now control the area around the crash.

The United Nations Security Council released a statement demanding that crash investigators and international forensic teams be allowed unfettered access to do their work.

The crash site sits squarely in a war zone. Though fighting has been limited over the past few weeks in the area near the crash, over the last 24 hours fighting has intensified, especially close to the Russian border. Despite an agreed upon ceasefire in the region, some reporters and observers at the scene say that heavy fighting and loud explosions can be heard in the distance toward the east.

President Obama declared the incident “a wake-up call” for the world, saying that the shooting down of the plane is proof that violence in the Ukraine could easily spill over into the rest of the world, adding “…it is not going to be localized, and it is not going to be contained.”

Malaysian authorities, too, are worried that the crash site will be compromised by hostile militants ill-equipped to manage such a scene. Some journalists at the crash site say that rescue workers are loading unmarked and untagged bodies onto open, industrial flatbed trucks. When the drivers of the trucks are asked where they are taking the bodies, they say they do not know. As of today, only 187 bodies have been found, leaving more than 100 unaccounted for.

Ukrainian officials say that they have additional evidence of militant and Russian responsibility. In Kiev a top Ukrainian security official, Vitaliy Nayda, shared photographs of what he said was a Gadfly missile system being transported eastward through the Ukraine along roads only a few miles from the Russian border. Nayda said that the missile launching equipment was being hurriedly removed from the area to conceal militant responsibility in the attack. The photos were taken by Ukrainian citizens along the road. Lending further credibility to the report is the fact that one of the missiles is clearly missing from the device which is designed to hold four rockets. Ukrainian security officials (and some U.S. officials) say that be tracking the path of the missile backwards, the rocket was launched just outside of the town of Snizhne, which would be consistent with eyewitness accounts in the area.

Now, with a list of dead which includes citizens of more than a dozen countries, international pressure will increase on Putin. Putin and Moscow have repeatedly denied that they are supporting the armed militants, despite substantial evidence to the contrary. Despite an aggressive barrage of sanctions by the U.S., many in the EU have been reluctant to endorse the most sweeping of sanctions against Russia for fear of disrupting the economy. But now pressure will surely build to take more direct action.

The U.K.’s David Cameron and Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte spoke by telephone on Saturday, and later—in a release by Cameron’s office—the two heads of state agreed that Europe must take stronger collective action against Putin.


Related Thursday Review articles:

One Crisis at a Time; R. Alan Clanton; Thursday Review; July 17, 2014.

How Dangerous is the Ukraine Crisis?; R. Alan Clanton; Thursday Review; April 14, 2014.

Rebirth of the Cold War; R. Alan Clanton; Thursday Review; March 23, 2014.